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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.